International football matches are among the highest manifestations of national pride and unity that a country can have in peaceful times. However, some anecdotal evidence suggests that when things go wrong (e.g. when the national team loses), the euphoria surrounding these events can easily turn into xenophobic outbursts. We propose a conceptual framework and an empirical analysis to explain whether sports nationalism can fuel xenophobic behavior and attacks against immigrants. Leveraging on new soccer data from Germany and quasi-experimental econometric techniques, we show the existence of a causal nexus between the national team’s performance in prominent international competitions and shifts in nationalist tendencies and xenophobic behaviors against immigrants. In the immediate days following a defeat of the German national team, there is a significant increase in the number of attacks against immigrants in the country. The opposite happens following a victory. Through a variety of robustness tests and different specifications, we show that the effect is specific to attacks against immigrants and not due to a general increase in violent behavior observed in other studies. Finally, we investigate potential underlying mechanisms by looking at the effect of football matches on reported mood and attitudes against immigrants.
This was originally published on SAGE Publications Ltd: Journal of Peace Research: Table of Contents.